The intensity of Russian drone and missile attacks seems to be decreasing compared to this time last year. This could be due to two reasons: either Moscow is running out of ammunition or they are directing their attacks elsewhere.
Russian forces conducted more intensive and wider-ranging strikes during the autumn 2022 campaign, suggesting that Russian forces may now be rationing their use of high-precision munitions or may simply lack the necessary munitions to sustain strike campaigns at their earlier pace and intensity.
US and UK military services also suggest the tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut – a key objective for Moscow, which sees the town as a stepping stone toward completing its conquest of the eastern Donbas region, appears to be slowing amid Western reporting that Russian forces may be attempting to launch offensives in other directions.
Russian forces are currently increasing their offensive operations around Avdiivka, aiming to encircle the settlement from the north and the south. It is possible they are doing so at the expense of their operations around Bakhmut and the stalled offensive around Vuhledar.
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