In the coming weeks the Russian mercenary group Wagner could lose most of the prisoners it recruited into its ranks as their six-month military contracts expire.
Analysis by the US Institute for the Study of War, citing British intelligence, estimates thousands of convicts recruited in the autumn of 2022 will be pardoned and released, in keeping with a promise by the head of the mercenary group.
The UK Ministry of Defence predicts this will significantly weaken Wagner, which is already struggling after the Kremlin banned it from recruiting any more prisoners.
For months the group has been fighting a bloody battle for Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine which some argue is of little strategic value, but is increasingly symbolic importance.
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